More stupid analysis from the Carmel Group about the looming XM/Sirius merger.
Says Radio Ink:
The analysis includes an extended “ping-pong chart” pairing XM and Sirius announcements in various areas that, says Carmel Group, “indicated a clear and direct competitive response” by one satcaster to a move by the other. Some pairs of announcements were made on the same day and most were within a few weeks or months of each other, but a few were made several years apart. Nine of the “ping-pong” exchanges took place after the February merger announcement. For example, the Carmel Group draws a parallel between XM’s signing of Opie & Anthony in August 2004 with Sirius’ decision to pick up Howard Stern two months later, and sees XM’s exclusive deal with Oprah Winfrey as a response to Sirius’ deal with Martha Stewart nine months before.
There’s no question that the satellite services historically looked over their shoulder at the other. But this bizarre study is evaluating tit-for-tat and somehow concluding that simply because they are responsive competitors they are also exclusive competitors – that they are competing in a field alone, when in fact this is the only field covered by the parameters of the study!
This would be like concluding that CSI is taking over television by a careful analysis only of programs called “CSI,” and ignoring everything else on TV!
In fact, satellite radio signed up this talent roster less to compete against each other and more to compete against terrestrial radio!
Further, this study presumes that satellite radio’s past behavior reflects their current behavior and can be projected into the future – that – in other words – XM and Sirius are presently as ignorant about the threats and opportunities they face from other technologies as they were in earlier “heady” days when the sky was perceived to be the limit and neither WiFi nor iPods mattered nearly to the degree they do now.
It’s just stupid, folks.
Why is it even newsworthy when an analyst is paid to provide an opinion that matches the opinion they’re paid to provide?