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Satellite Radio will only take 20% of your audience! ONLY 20%!

From Radio Ink:

According to a new Eastlan study, 80% of Americans still have little interest in satellite radio and the same percentage remain unlikely to subscribe to satellite radio in the future. This new data seems to echo the findings of an Eastlan study in the spring of 2001 in which 80% of American questioned would have no interest in purchasing a new satellite delivered radio service that offered dozens of commercial-free radio channels for a monthly fee of around $10.00.

The tone here is that cannibalization by Satellite will be limited. Here’s why that’s wrong:

First off, Satellite Radio doesn’t need or pretend to need more than 20% of your listeners, do they? So by concluding that (quotes added) “only” 20% of your audience is “at risk” we really have concluded nothing comforting to you and certainly nothing discouraging to Satellite Radio. If you perceive the potential loss of 20% of your audience as good news then may the Lord be with you.

Second, intended behavior questions of this type are notoriously inaccurate, especially where purchases are concerned, and highly sensitive to the exact way the question is phrased. For example, tell respondents that Howard Stern is on the network and the number would likely go down. Tell them Major League Baseball is on the network and it will likely go up. Vague questions generate vague and inaccurate answers. I have no doubt that’s what we’re looking at here.

Bottom line: Satellite Radio will eat into your business big time. And as Satellite Broadcasters build their brands and communicate more attractive reasons to subscribe that cannibalization will increase.

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