An opinion which matches mine exactly:
[First,] I think the Street might be making too much of the weak satellite radio sales at retail. The satellite services will live or die on their ability to become standard equipment on most new cars; after-market radios is always going to be secondary. And second, I suspect that the FCC could potentially change the rules if there was a clear view that the real competitive landscape is not between two satellite radio companies, but rather between satellite radio, terrestrial radio, the Internet and iPods. There are lots of ways to get music out there; satellite radio is just one of many. Given the weak financial performance of the two companies, a merger makes a lot of sense.
That view is, indeed, the clear one.
Plus, as I’ve said before, as goes satellite so goes HD. Meaning HD’s only – and I mean only – shot for success is as standard (not optional) equipment in new cars.
And that is a slow process that will take years and years – one car buyer at a time.
And what does it mean for radio? It means we should stop spending phantom money on our air promoting HD and start spending real money to buy dashboard space in every new car.
This is yet another ugly little secret you won’t see written in the many radio trades which call iBiquity a customer.