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The value of prediction

Bridge Ratings is out with another set of predictions for various audio media in the years to come.

There are some differences in these predictions from their previous ones, they say, and indeed there are.

The last time I profiled Bridge predictions was only a few months ago. But look at the changes in their projections for 2010 (only four years from now) between March and October of 2006:


Now I don’t mean to pick on Bridge Ratings – I like those guys. But I mean to make a broader statement about projections in general, not about these projections in particular:

Nobody really knows anything.

When you can see swings this dramatic in a matter of months for projections which are only four years out, then nobody really knows anything.

In case you’re celebrating the reduced projections for satellite radio, remember this: Nobody really knows anything.

And in case you DO think there’s something here for you to attend to, I would remind you that in March 2006 Bridge projected 46 million HD radios in circulation by 2020. What’s the new and updated number? 26 million.

Nobody knows anything.

Not for 2020. Not for 2010. Not for 2007.

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