03/17

Radio’s Advertising Spending Forecast – 2015 – 2020

jackmyers

There’s a new report from one of my favorite media experts, Jack Myers, and it highlights advertising revenue projections for radio and other media from 2015 to 2020 (you can download your own copy here).

To summarize:

Terrestrial radio (non-digital advertising only) is expected to be essentially flat with 0.6% growth annually.

Digital advertising revenue is expected to increase by 18% annually over the next five years.

That means digital will rise from 9% of overall ad revenue in 2015 to 19% in 2020. In other words, all the growth in radio ad revenue is likely to come from digital based on these metrics.

Another point: The non-digital estimates have terrestrial radio beating newspaper revenue by this year. Not because radio is rising, of course, but because, well, you know.

What’s also interesting is Jack’s statistic for what he calls “Internet originated audio,” which I assume means streaming and perhaps podcasting revenue. That rises at 22.9% annually, even more bullish than terrestrial radio digital advertising. In fact, Jack estimates that “Internet originated audio” advertising will top terrestrial radio digital advertising by THIS year and keep on rising.

Jack Myers is a truly authoritative source so dig into the numbers and be very glad you’re not a newspaper or consumer magazine company.

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  • Russell

    18% annual growth rate for Digital sounds like a lot, but if you compare the figures – Digital audio is a $1 billion market. Terrestrial radio is a $17 billion market. If Digital were to ever overtake Terristrial, Digital would need to grow by 30% annually for the next 10 years before it reaches $17 billion. Terrestrial radio might only be growing by 0.6% but lets assume terristrial radio ad revenue for 2017 is $17 billion – an increase of 0.6% is 102 million. For Digital, an increase of 18% on 1 billion is 180 million. Let’s say this growth remains for the next 10 years. By 2027 Terrestrial will be $18 billion – Digital will be $6 billion. That’s still a massive gap. The slow and steady terrestrial tortoise wins.

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