“Advertising will change forever”

Says Forrester's Josh Bernoff:  "If you're in advertising, you'd better learn to speak digital, because that's the way the world is going."

Just look at this crystal-clear chart:


Radio's not in this picture.  Nor is any other traditional ad medium.  But note the rising percentages at the bottom of the above chart and ask yourself, where is that increase coming from?

Josh continues:  

"The result is that digital, which will be about 12% of overall advertising spend in 2009, is likely to grow to about 21% in five years. Along the way overall advertising budgets will decline.
This is huge.
It means we are all digital marketers now, since digital is at the center of many campaigns anyway."

Here's the square deal, radio.

We have to see the world differently – the way the consumer sees it.  Not the way our owners, investors, and bosses do.

We need to restructure our companies with that nouveau consumer in mind.

And we need to do it soon.

My feeling is that the majority of broadcasters underestimate the magnitude of what's happening – or at least the magnitude of how they need to adjust to what's happening.

We must rethink radio from the ground up.

While we have ground to stand on.

* = required field
  • http://www.FM905.ca Andy McNabb

    What stations have a simply executed, station-revenue-producing, advertiser-results-producing digital strategy? I’m asking, as I’ve bought a 206 watt station that I’m reformatting to local news plus Christian talk, and see digital as being critical to our launching the format at summer’s end (www.FM905.ca). Andy McNabb

  • Jim Ryan

    I can certainly tell you from the perspective of having been on the radio management side as well as ad agency, direct marketing and now Internet side of marketing, the current offerings broadcast companies are presenting local businesses are limited in scope and fall well short of being competitive as a more complete media plan value proposition. Even more so for local radio where their primary interactive offerings are directly tied to their lackluster websites that will never generate near the content driven, consumer traffic of local TV and news sites. That said, an opportunity exists but it requires exactly what you stated Mark, restructuring of their business model.

  • George

    What bothers me about projections like these is they ignore potential developments that could change everything, and imply that this growth will apply to all digital media. All I need to do is start a web site, and advertisers will throw money at me.
    As one who’s started lots of web sites, I can tell you the latter won’t happen. All digital media isn’t created equal. Some attract lots of people with curiosity, and some don’t. But the same rules that apply to traditional media also apply to digital. You need to have something people want, you need to engage them, you need to build word-of-mouth, and you need to know how to monetize without killing the golden goose. If you can do all that, you might have a chance. Pandora is trying to figure out how far it can go in monetizing before it loses its audience. I believe all it will take is a new Pandora, someone who has a slightly different approach, and monetizes itself differently, and the old Pandora falls apart. That’s how tenuous the platform is.

  • http://profile.typepad.com/mramsey1 Mark Ramsey

    Yes, all projections are sketchy. Curiously, nobody ever looks back to OLD projections or we’d see just how wrong they are.
    Still, we can all agree that the trend line is unlikely to favor whatever we now call “radio,” all other things equal.

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