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Bob Garfield’s “Chaos Scenario” – and answers for Radio

Danger
I almost hesitate referencing this new piece from Ad Age's Bob Garfield, because for anyone toiling away in the belly of the media beast day after day, the tone (not to mention the title) is downright apocalyptic.

Garfield, who has a forthcoming book that will point the way to answers to what he calls the "chaos scenario" presents in gory detail the tribulations of media conglomerates, including radio.

If you don't come away from this piece feeling a tad suicidal, then you will likely arrive at a few inescapable conclusions for radio in particular:

1.  If the supply of advertising avails online is infinite but the supply of advertising is not, then the only way to avoid having the cost of that advertising driven to zero is to create an environment that attracts advertisers because of its uniqueness.  Unique brands, unique advertising concepts.  The era of successful me-too brands and "this space available" advertising is over.

2.  Radio can move a lot of people to wherever they want to go.  We will need to monetize their destinations, whether or not they are "our station's website."

3.  You need to be out of the "radio station" business and into the "local media company" business.  Now is a time to recognize the roots of value for your company and to leverage that value.

4.  We will need to recognize what makes our audience unique – one listener from the other – not simply what makes them alike.  In the future, what makes each listener different is key to her value to advertisers and to your media company.  How much each listener lets you know about them is critical to your ability to connect those listeners to marketers that interest them, and vice versa.

5.  You need to embrace all manner of social media as an adjunct to the one thing no social media tool has in your absence:  A loudspeaker with hundreds of thousands of willing consumers on the other end.

6.  Our obsession with ratings and ratings methodologies is entirely misplaced, thus the importance of ratings per se will invariably decline.  When I have lots of ways to reach thousands in my target audience – and most of those ways have precise metrics, not "ratings estimates" – then the number of ears you attract is less important than what you can do with them when you attract them.

We are at a turning point in our industry and the need is clear for us to remake what we do from the ground up.  We cannot "shrink" to success, only to obscurity.

The challenge may be clearer and more obvious than the answers, but accept that challenge you must.
View Comments
  • Jim Ryan
    Thank you for the space Mark
  • Jim Ryan
    Abandoning isn't a solution but it is a reality. Have you ever quit a job only to find a better one and then wonder why you waited so long to make the move? Thousands of people are leaving Radio now, many by choice including share holders, owners, employees, consultants, suppliers, rep firms, even Google! Most have hope for greener pastures and other careers never to return.
    I say that Rush, Bob and Tom, Willy Cunningham, great music and content will always survive. It just isn't going to be facilitated by a local radio broadcast station.
    Do you really think that Entercom, Beasley and all the others wouldn't dump their licenses and convert to manning the Circus tents if by doing so they could be assured of providing marketing solutions to local businesses and grow as a service provider? In fact, some Radio Broadcasters will be doing something just as dramatic, if not as absurd.
    Thank you space Mark
  • So then your solution is to "abandon ship."
    PS My blog has never been about the radio industry per se.
  • Jim Ryan
    Doesn't it make you wonder with all the fine readers and contributors to your blog over the last few years, why you haven't heard one solution?
    Too negative? Really? Which counter point of mine don't you agree with? Which key challenge do you believe Radio Broadcasters can overcome as Radio Broadcasters, not as another totally transformed business because that is a different subject all together (and where I think you miss the talking point)
    Or let me put it another way, by asking you this question. If radio broadcasters not only survive but once again become a viable, relevant and growing secular business model, do you think they will be doing so from their analog or digital broadcast platforms?
    If you believe that to be so, then say so for the record. My position is simply this. Finite towers and broadcast licenses will soon have no value. They are already major asset write downs if you have been following the accounting.
    If Radio Broadcasters survive by way of the internet, then they are no longer in the broadcast business and they are open to any and all who want to compete in concept, in content and in distribution. Why? Because they are not protected from competitive alternatives due to the finite space of licenses and towers!
    So Mark, if you believe to the contrary, then take every penny you have and invest. The stocks have never been lower and your returns would secure your future many times over.
    In the meantime, don't dare be negative about the plight of newspapers, radio or the printed (Yellow Page) directories. Don't dare believe that major media markets could actually be without a newspaper such as the San Francisco Chronicle, NY Times or Chicago Tribune.
    And please don't believe that my predicting the end of the traditional media era (including radio) is about doom and gloom. It's simply the end of an era. That said, I'll make one last prediction - in two years, your blog will no longer be about the radio broadcast industry.
  • Jim, I think your comments are too negative and don't acknowledge any "way out" for troubled broadcasters.
    I have heard repeatedly that folks want not only an accurate analysis of the situation but remedies for that situation.
    If you don't agree with mine - or think them impractical - you're welcome to provide your own.
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MRM President Mark Ramsey has worked with innumerable television and radio broadcasters over his career, including all the biggest names, from Clear Channel, CBS, Bonneville, Sirius XM...

Mark Ramsey