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Portable People Meter Fear and Loathing

Arbitron demonstrated some ways Radio Programmers can use data from their Portable People Meters (PPM’s) during last week’s Radio & Records convention, and some of their conclusions are destined to open a Pandora’s box of trouble.

I heard about this second-hand, but I was told they were demonstrating how you could actually measure the drop-off in audience when an extraordinarily long song is played (e.g., Stairway to Heaven). You can also measure the loss when a new and unfamiliar song is played – and chart how listenership grows for such songs as familiarity grows. This way, they suggest, you can use PPM’s as a form of new music research.

All very interesting, but I’m wondering a couple things:

1. When Arbitron’s diaries can’t accurately show how many people in total even listen to a given station from one month to the next, why should we place any credence in the ability of their PPM’s to predict listenership accurately one minute to the next?

2. Doesn’t the result about long songs suggest we should play the shortest possible songs only? Is this, in the long run, really going to give listeners what they want?

3. Doesn’t the result about new music suggest not only that we can measure when a new song is familiar enough – but that we’re actually best off by not playing ANY new songs? Again, is this really going to give listeners what they want?

Using the PPM the way Arbitron has suggested may suit their lobbying efforts – it may be sexy and persuasive – but it’s a reductionist view of the listening experience that will do our brands no good in the long run.

In that long run, imperfection and genius go hand in hand. And one does not exist without the other.

6 Comments;
  • http://www.arcmag.com/bloggreg/ Greg Gillispie

    This comment was written to R&R’s Kevin Carter the day of Arbitron’s presentation about PPM being able to detect songs that are “stickier than others.”
    I’ll be interested in reading about Arbitron’s Bob Michaels’ presentation about PPM. Hopefully, those in attendance don’t get the impression that this device can be equated to research results. I mean do you really think the only reason someone may change the station or turn off the radio is solely dependent on the song the station plays?
    Now if you’ll excuse me, I have a conference call to jump on and in order to pay close attention and hear what everyone else says, I need to turn off the radio…even though the station is currently playing one of my favorite songs…

  • http://www.mercradio.com Mark Ramsey

    Greg, thanks for the comment. I’ll have something richer to say on this topic in Tuesday’s weekly email.
    So you know, the ARB presentation you’re talking about is now posted and your point is recognized in that presentation.

  • Bob Michaels

    I would invite people to review the entire presentation, especially the text slides with all of our warnings and concerns over reviewing this early data.
    I believe we have shown in earlier PPM presentations how the meter can provide much more granular information than a diary can ever hope to show. We have been saying this for years at Arbitron about the diary and I think most people will align with the value of PPM for the more detailed info.
    Also when you read the notes, you will see the results are based on people who SWITCHED to another radio station ONLY! Those who turned the radio off (like Greg did…or I did last week when I got to the office and was late for a meeting) do NOT count in this calculation.
    Bob

  • http://www.mercradio.com Mark Ramsey

    Bob, thanks for joining the discussion. Nice to see someone from Arbitron in the fray. And thanks for your comments.
    Arbitron is, of course, in the “granular” business. I would just hate to see broadcasters win the granular battle and lose the ratings war.

  • http://www.arcmag.com/bloggreg/ Greg Gillispie

    Bob: Congratulations on having the “guts” to join in the discussion since you are a member of the Arbitron team and did the presentation!
    Something to consider – For those of us that were not there for the presentation, the headline in the news is the strongest representation of what you did.
    Now that you have somewhat clarified it, I still don’t understand why turning off the radio was not part of the study. There are two ways listeners can “vote” – change the station or turn off the radio.
    But of great interest in your comment is – “I believe we have shown in earlier PPM presentations how the meter can provide much more granular information than a diary can ever hope to show. We have been saying this for years at Arbitron about the diary.”
    OK, so why should anyone in radio put any creedence (without the clearwater or revival) into anything Arbitron currently presents us that has such strong impact over station positioning and revenue generation???

  • Bob Michaels

    Greg, re: why did we not include people who “turned off” the radio. Think about it…how many times did you get to the office and your FAVORITE song is on, but you are late for a meeting. What do you do…shut off the car and leave (ending your PPM-received radio listening) or stay and listen to the song. Most likely you shut the car off – since your love of the song had nothing to do with what you had to do (shut off the radio and get to work). From an AQH Persons/Share perspective, you leave both the numerator and the denominator of the AQH Share equation (if I lost you, look up how AQH Share is calculated). BUT, if you SWITCHED stations, the AQH goes to someone else (and, with enough people doing it, your AQH Persons and Share go down).
    Regarding the other statement, remember that the AQH Rating (how we all make money in radio – from the sales department) for both diary and PPM in Philly is FLAT. TV is up, radio is flat. So the diary IS picking up the majority of the listening (as we always said it was), but cannot get to the granularity of the PPM (remember the Howard Stern/Pamela Anderson “bump” in the ratings when she came on using PPM to examine the show? Our website has other presentations that show the individual day granularity that the diary just can’t pick up.) I think this answers your last question Greg. If not, give me a call at 972-385-5357.

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MRM President Mark Ramsey has worked with innumerable television and radio broadcasters over his career, including all the biggest names, from Clear Channel, CBS, Bonneville, Sirius XM...

Mark Ramsey